Ukraine also hit trains delivering fuel for Russias armores vehicles.
SLAVA UKRAINE!!!!!!!!!!!!
Go back to bed old man, your sleepy commentary runs par with Joe Biden!
YAWN
This is for people who know how to read with the intent to gain some semblance of having a balanced objective point of view instead of advertising to be a Ukrainian prostitute here all the time!
In this piece I present four scenarios for the āendgameā to the Russo-Ukrainian war. They are:
- The overruling majority (peace).
- The immovable majority (wider war).
- Regime change in Russia (risky conflict).
- World War III (nuclear holocaust).
Scenarios concentrate on the drivers of the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance, or NATO. More precisely, they deal with whether NATO is being driven by simply erratic decisions, or whether itās an aggressor. I went through these basic scenarios in length in my last entry.
I have not visited Russia since 2011. I made this decision after the annexation of Crimea. I donāt think that wars of invasion should be allowed in modern Europe. Yet, Iāve visited Russia, and even the Soviet Union, many times. My relatives were working at the Finnish embassies in Russia, which led me and my mother to visit the Soviet Union two times, when I was just a kid. The visions of a chaotic Soviet Moscow have been burned into my memory for the rest of my life.
In 2009, we went to Moscow with a group of family and friends. The theme of the few day trip became nje rabotaet, which essentially means āit does not workā. This was because nothing seemed to work, and everyone kept telling us that phrase (in metro stations, bars, cafeterias, etc.). Russia is a chaotic, but funny place. Slavic people are not actually known for their exuberant niceness, but you do get help in Russia, when you ask for it.
The leadership of a country naturally often tends to mimic the culture and national characteristics. The spontaneous actions of the current Russian leader President Putin are not anomalies in their history. Many Russian leaders from Ivan the Terrible to Char Peter I and further to Stalin and other leaders of the Soviet Union have fought invasive wars and acted very reactively.
In my view, the demonization of Russia arises mainly from two sources:
- People do not understand Russia, and thus fear it, and
- War propaganda.
This piece essentially deals with both. First, I go through the Finnish experience with Russia, which should act as a comforting lesson for the rest of the world, and how it applies to the current situation in Europe. Then, I will present four scenarios for the endgame of the Russo-Ukrainian war.
The Finnish experience
Finns fought two wars against Russia, more precisely against the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union was, or it became a military behemoth during WWII. It has been said that before Operation Barbarossa, for example, the air force of the Soviet Union was larger than that of the rest of world. The purge of the Red Amy, by then-dictator of Russia Josif Stalin in 1937, reduced the morale and efficiency of Soviet military right before the onset of WWII. This was visible in the Winter War fought between Finland and the Soviet Union between 30th November 1939 and 13th March 1940. The Finnish seriously unequipped military inflicted devastating losses on the Red Army almost solely with āSisuā. After the Finnish troops had stopped all progress of an over-whelming Russian invasion force at the end of December, Soviet high command went into re-thinking and re-grouping mode. On February 1st 1940, the Red Army started its crushing attack against an already stretched Finnish defenders. Heroic resistance of the Finnish soldiers and growing international pressure saved Finland, while she lost some 12% of her landmass.
Wars between Russia and Finland did not end with the Winter War, because Finland took part to Operation Barbarossa as an unofficial ally to Nazi Germany. An excerpt from my Finland and NATO piece in the Epoch Times:
The Winter War was largely bilateral, caused by territorial claims of the then-leader of the Soviet Union, Joseph Stalin, and the secret amendment of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact placing Finland under the Soviet āsphere of influence.ā The Continuation War was fought alongside Nazi Germany in an effort to reclaim territories lost in the Winter War. Finland actually had very little choice under the constraints created by the ongoing European war. There was a constant threat of a Soviet invasion, and Finland held the largest known nickel deposit in Europe in Petsamo, the northern āarmā of Finland, which both Hitler and Stalin sought to command. It thus had to either join forces with Germany or face a possible new Soviet invasion. The wars resulted in the loss of around 12 percent of Finlandās territory, including Petsamo.
After the wars, Presidents Juho Paasikivi and Urho Kekkonen formulated a policy line of passive neutrality called the PaasikiviāKekkonen doctrine. It was based on the āfear factorā Finland acquired during the two wars and friendly co-existence. While Finland lost 12% of her landmass, we earned our right to co-exist, independent, during the Cold War right next to the most formidable military power the world had ever seen.
Finns also understood that you should not poke the Russian bear. While she may seem vulnerable and weak, sheās not, and will become much more dangerous if wounded. I donāt think we will ever know for sure, why Stalin spared Finland after the Moscow Armistice after the Continuation War, but we know why the relationship with Russia (Soviet Union) later became so prosperous and friendly, which brings us to the current problem Europe faces.
The problem of Europe
The Russian mindset is not so complex or chaotic as many in the West make it to be. Like I explained in my previous entry, Russian leadership seeks to increase its influence in the neighboring regions driven by bezopasnost. They also follow strength instead of diplomacy. Finland cemented her position beside the Soviet Union by not making herself a threat and making herself strong both economically and militarily (that is, a very ābitter pillā for Russia to swallow). So, the success of Finland to coexist and prosper alongside Russia (Soviet Union) was based on strength and keeping friendly relations with Moscow. Easy recipe.
The problem Europe now faces is two-fold. First, after Finland became a full member of the NATO, Russia has been cornered from every side in Europe by a force it does not consider peaceful, which is something we really cannot blame the Russian leadership from. Previous Finnish leaders knew that if Finland makes herself a threat to Russia, consequences will be dire. Ukrainian leadership must have known this too, but they were clearly manipulated by western leaders. Secondly, we can now conclude that NATO is not what it says it is.
The future of Europe now basically hangs in the balance between two dangerous scenarios of what is actually driving NATO, which can be categorized as:
- NATO, the erratic, and
- NATO, the aggressor.
These characterizations draw from utterly irresponsible or deliberately aggressive actions taken by NATO leadership over the past three decades and especially during the past year. You can simplify this by stating that either NATO leadership massively underestimated Russian resources and the devotion of her leadership to bezopasnost or then they deliberately over-stepped the red lines of Moscow in an effort to create a military conflict that would engulf Europe.
In what follows, I sketch future scenarios based on the two assumptions of the motives of NATO. They show that the underlying assumptions (erratic or aggressive NATO), dominates the future paths of Europe, and the world, while three of the four scenarios may end up in the same terrifying end-result, that is, a nuclear holocaust. Scenarios are behind a paywall, but you can read them through the 7-day free trial.
NATO, the erratic
Here I assume that the leadership of NATO has (is) simply making cataclysmic mistakes and is currently engaged in a desperate effort to āsave faceā with the collapse of Ukraine looming. I will concentrate on the political response of the ordinary populace of how the future will play out through overruling majority and immovable minority.1
Scenario I: The overruling majority
On March 4, our Minister of Defense, Antti HƤkkƤnen, said in a speech he held at the opening of the National Defense Course that āItās time to recognize the facts. Russia is a threat to the whole democratic worldā. Coming from a Finnish Minister of Defense, this is as close as we can get to a declaration of war without actually declaring it.
I consider that this speech was a marker, signaling that Finland is committed to a war against Russia. I naturally sincerely hope that I am wrong about this. However, this is so exceptional coming from a Finnish Minister of Defense that I am having difficulties explaining it by any other motive (I donāt, for example, buy the extreme stupidity argument).
If we assume that the leaders of NATO, and member countries, are simply making mistakes, then this speech can be seen as a cataclysmic one, because Moscow is likely to take it as a sign, or a āmarkerā of aggressive future plans by leaders of Finland and NATO. This means that Russia will most likely start to gear up for a war at her north-western border, again. The Finnish-Russian border, and especially the Karelian Isthmus (peninsula) has been one of the main āhotspotsā of Europe for centuries. It was the main battleground for Swedish and Russian empires from the Russo-Swedish war in 1475, till the Finnish war in 1809, when Sweden finally lost Finland to Russia, effectively ending the Swedish Empire. The isthmus was also the main battleground in the Winter and Continuation Wars.
Itās obvious that neither the vast majority of Finns nor Europeans want a war, but could they be manipulated into one?
The people naturally have the final say in every system, because if they start to revolt, no dictator can hold that force at bay. Could there be an actual rebellion against the erratic, or even aggressive, NATO leadership? Of course there could, but I am not seeing such signs yet, which does not mean they could not appear, if (when) the war starts to look imminent.2
Thereās also the possibility that NATO leadership is looking for a way out of the conflict in Ukraine. If this would be the case, public opinion turning against the war, even in smaller portions, could provide support for the leadership of NATO to retreat from their prior erratic decisions and enact the process of de-escalation, while saving face.
Taking everything that is going on into account, there are too many errors made for them to be random, imho. And if the errors are not random, then they are systemic (deliberate), which implies that NATO is the aggressor. However, before diving into that, letās consider one more scenario.
Scenario II: The immovable minority
Worryingly many European political leaders seem to support, if not an outright war, but a confrontation with Russia. Thereās also a very vocal minority of Europeans demanding harsher measures against Russia, while some are even advocating for a wider war.
In this second scenario, of NATO the erratic, these minority forces prevail and control the public narrative and thus the conflict, pushing it into a wider European war. This scenario coincidences with the World War III scenario below. The difference is that in this scenario the world drifts into a WWIII and nuclear annihilation that would likely follow, while in the scenario presented below, a deliberate escalation by NATO ignites the conflict. In this scenario, escalation comes in the form of toughening rhetoric towards Russia and re-armament, fueling the conflict, while in the deliberate escalation scenario nuclear war ignites from pushing the envelope too far or through an intentional act. I will not speculate on the possible military developments that could lead to this scenario in any detail, but mention, that at some point, escalation (naturally) leads to a broadening of the conflict.
NATO, the aggressor
In the next two scenarios that follow, I assume that the aim of NATO is to either force a regime change in Russia or destroy the nation in a war. The motivation for these aims can rise from three sources, which can intertwine. So, the endgame for NATO the aggressor can be to:
- Gain control of vast Russian mineral resources,
- Destroy the Eurasian alliance (and keep it that way), and/or
- Ignite a world war, for the global elite to gain widespread control over societies.
Itās my current thinking that all of these motives can act as drivers, while the last one is highly speculative.
Scenario III: Regime change in Russia
It is obvious that a nuclear holocaust would not serve the aim of this scenario, as it would evaporate most of the populace, machinery and infrastructure from the world. Major cities and areas would be uninhabitable for years, including, most likely, mineral deposits in Russia, Europe and in the U.S. This is why we can assume that in this scenario the escalation of the conflict to a wider war in Europe is not the aim of NATO, but there is a high likelihood it will lead to that.
The likelihood of this scenario can be considered to be relatively high, considering everything that has happened in Ukraine. It looks like NATO tried to slowly increase the pressure and to cause heavy losses to Russian forces. The āPrigozhing incidentā, also fits with this narrative, as the āmutinyā started during the (failed) Ukrainian counter-offensive, which makes it looks pre-planned. Often, when such plans for a coup have been laid, one has to go through with them regardless, because thereās no actual way to retreat. In this case, the likely plan assumed that Prigozhin would have started his march to Moscow after devastating Russian losses, which would have angered the Russian populace and de-moralized the troops. None of this happened, because the counter-offensive of the AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) failed. Moreover, itās likely that Yevgeni Prigozhin were supported by, at least some western intelligence offices. These plans would have most certainly been revealed at some point, if Prigozhin would have failed to act as planned. Thus, while thereās no certainty that a coup was part of a western plan that is how it looked, and Prigozhin was forced to follow it through with the most extreme personal cost.
The question we now face is, what would be the next steps for NATO to accomplish a regime change? Two scenarios rise above others:
- A re-armament race that eats through Russian economic resources, leading the country to collapse from inside out, similarly to what happened to the Soviet Union in the late-1980s.
- Major conflicts in the neighbouring regions (Abkhazia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, etc.), destabilizing large parts of Russia.
The first would essential bring back the darkest times of the Cold War, while the latter could create a highly unstable Russia. Both of these can, naturally, lead to the extreme scenario of nuclear holocaust. The former would take us there through some escalation, during which a nuclear detonation occurs (through a mistake or deliberately) enacting a nuclear war. In the latter, the risk of a nuclear confrontation arises from some extreme faction taking power in Kremlin after Putinās regime fails, and/or some nuclear arms fall into the possession of such a group after such an event. This latter was essentially the main fear, after the collapse of the Soviet Union pushed Russian military forces into a state of near-anarchy.
Scenario IV: World War III (nuclear holocaust)
A nuclear holocaust is naturally something the vast majority of the populace would not want to see, but could there be some who would? Such ācraziesā naturally exist among us humans, but the question is, could they hold key places in our supra-national organizations, like NATO?
If we assume that such people do not exist in the leadership of NATO nor in the leadership of those countries running it (essentially the U.S.), the aggressive actions of NATO could still lead us into nuclear confrontation. NATO leadership could be, very aggressively, seeking one of the two first-mentioned scenarios, that is, to:
- Gain control of vast Russian mineral resources,
- Destroy the Eurasian alliance (and keep it that way).
The first one could be achieved with the regime change scenario described above. The latter would require that there will be no peace in Ukraine, which in this situation (Ukraine has effectively lost) requires that the war spreads. This would mean that some of the āfrontline countriesā, i.e. Finland, the Baltics or Poland, escalates (note that a āfalse flagā blaming Russians is also possible), igniting a direct conflict between NATO and Russia. If that occurs, thereās a high likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used at some point, leading to a nuclear holocaust. Nuclear conflict would probably arise from a failure to understand the red lines of the other side and/or from a miscalculation. Russia has drawn a red line by incorporating the eastern regions of Ukraine it has annexed into Russian āmotherlandā. Crossing of it would most likely lead to a nuclear confrontation. Cyberattacks to ICT or power systems leading to a wide spread devastation could also trigger a response with nuclear arms. Moreover, in a sitution, where war propaganda is dominating, like it is now, the risk of over-reacting grows.
But, what if there are factions in key places in NATO leadership actually pushing for a nuclear confrontation?
This would naturally be the most dangerous scenario for us all, because it would imply that, if escalation through ātraditional meansā (war propaganda and luring Russia to respond militarily) does not succeed, there will, most likely, be a major false flag blamed on Russia. If, for example, the general populace cannot be turned to support a wider war using propaganda, a major false flag operation could be enacted. In practice, any escalation, in this scenario, needs to be on the scale of a nuclear detonation. In the worst case, the deranged background power players of NATO decide that an actual nuclear detonation in some populous area, like in a major European or Russian city, is required.
What could be the aim of such a suicidal power faction? They could foster an omnipotent view that they can control even a nuclear confrontation so that it could serve their aims of, e.g., establishing world-wide control systems. Also, there simply are men that āwant to see the world burnā, albeit I highly doubt such persons could be in ruling positions in NATO or in our governments.
This last part of the nuclear holocaust scenario is naturally extremely speculative, and I really have not thought it through thoroughly yet. However, I donāt think we should be ruling out any scenario, considering the madness that seems to have taken over our political leaders. In that note, we should also acknowledge the possibility of a ālone wolf scenarioā, where some small group of individuals is able to produce some cataclysmic false flag event leading to a retaliation from one side of the conflict with nuclear weapons.
Conclusions
Talking with ordinary people on the current situation in the world usually yields an answer: āthis makes no senseā. I fully concur, but this only applies if we fully believe on the prevailing western narrative, which is that global elite and most of our political leaders are benevolent and Russia/Putin is ābadā.
I have speculated on the drivers behind recent developments in several entries (see, e.g, the Apocalypse Scenario -series). I think we should not shy away even on the most preposterous explanations, like some extremely secretive group āpulling the stringsā. What we do know, however, is the the perilous direction we are currently heading into.
The scenarios presented here concentrated on NATO because it holds the definite role in the current crisis. Currently, NATO is escalating by, e.g., building military bases right next to Russian border in Finland and with its leadership giving comments of NATO-membership of Ukraine. These can be just extremely grave mistakes or deliberate actions of escalation.
In this piece, I have mapped the scenarios we are likely to face based on the actions by NATO. They are not the ones I would like to champion for, but I find them to be the ones we are facing.
Link:
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If you count the Ukrainian fuel depots and vehicles blown up by the Russians each week, youāll need the whole page.
As for Ukrainian military practice, whatās criminal is the fact that the Ukraine military stores materiel in the middle of civilian areas and shopping centers, parks tanks in the parking areas of apartments and right next to such buildings. This practice hasnāt changed from the very beginning of the current war.
There was a video of a Ukrainian woman who, having seen the Ukrainian military setting up artillery complex right next to her apartment building, yelled at the soldiers to go somewhere else. I donāt know whatever happned to her.
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Well, the eventual losers of WW2 also took out trains, plains, bridges, ammunition dumps, strategic communication locations, etcā¦
Taking out a train is so miniscule in the scheme of things that it isnāt even relevant in the outcome. I would guess Ukraine will take out more trains, etcā¦ before this little war is done. It wonāt change the outcome.
Stoltenbergās recent comments are incendiary and has many NATO countries now pushing back on his reckless rhetoric. What could possibly go wrong? A US made long range missile strike launched from Ukraine hits a major Russian city? The Russian response if I was a guess man, would be to flatten Kiev and the rest of Ukraine. Next move is the US and the Kharzian (spelling) mafia?
The key phrase in this article, in my opinion is "ā¦and no one will stop itā¦ā. Of course they wonāt ā the Deep State actors who are behind the scenes pulling the strings want and actually need war to cover up such things as the increasing death rate from the Covid shots, the impending tsunami of inflation, the imminent failure of hundreds of banks, the worsening state of the global economy, not to mention the fat profits and opportunities for greed that war generates. As Randolph Bourne once said: War is the health of the state.
No, Russia will not flatten Kiev, because Kiev is a Russian city.
Russia will destroy a military base or two of the country which manufactures the long-range missile used in such attacks. Or its city.
I kind of wish Russia will flatten Tel Aviv and (west) Jerusalem, home of the Khazarian mafia.
Despite the fact we are being led into WW3 by NATO.
Ukraine is out of men, so their only option is to get NATO involved.
What happens when Russia kills French troops in Ukraine?
Russia has offered to negotiate, itās past time to stop the killing & get both sides to the negotiating table.
It is no secret that many Frenchmen, Americans and Poles have been killed but they were either mercs or under the guise of Ukrainian uniforms.
Instructorsā¦ Isnāt that how the US got involved in Vietname?
I donāt know where I heard it, but itās a chilling hypothesis coming from Russia. (It was actually proposed by a well-known political figure.)
āIn the face of increased NATO saber rattling including use of nukes, Russia should simply nuke Warsaw.
Why Warsaw? Although Poland is a member of the NATO, no German or Brit wants to die in a nuclear war against superior Russia to avenge Warsaw, (because the western Europeans really donāt like the Poles) and the entire NATO will back off.ā
Vietnam? Not exactly! Gulf of Tonken was a false flag operation! The official narrative was taking over for the French to which was in Vietnam since 1887.
Donāt agree with this hypothesis, in fact its a little nutty. It would be suicide for Russia if they went that route if WW II taught us anything.
Russia largely supplies its Army in Ukraine using trains which are easy targets.
The sky in Luhansk was lit up by a beautiful fire from a missile strike on the airfield.
SLAVA UKRAINE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Your stupidity canāt be fixed! Go vote for Biden at least youād have an excuse for being so dumb!
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No, Im much smarter than that. I voted for Trump over Hillary and will vote for him again. A FAR BETTER CHOICE!!!
Sure you will! You donāt know what you stand for. You think you know but in reality you are just another cheerleader sock puppet for the old hegemonic power that has you brainwashed!
No comments on how Russia is wasting lives by taking needless unnecessary casualties which have now surpassed 500k. All these young men lives wasted because Russia doesnt care how many casualties they take to take an objective.You must be OK with this.
SLAVA UKRAINE !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Inaccurate, again shit posting with false information!
I should allow you to decide political views for me as Im too incompetent to decide for myself.
No but you love suking Ukraineās dik!
You never can post an article or cite a source to back up your erroneous claims. Why is that? Are you too stupid to, or are you afraid that you confirmation bias will be proven wrong yet again? Now who is the incompetent one? Projection is a funny thing!