We continue to compress. I am still of the opinion that the Euro is weak and This weeks numbers show the US economy is roaring – cept when you listen to the marxist democrats describe it! 
Fridays US economic news should have pushed the EU down hard – I’ve seen two theories – bots kicked in on the down spike or we have a good old fashioned bull trap. Probably see which one this week. I still show daily in a strong down trend.
I have said I would post the good, bad and ugly. I had a ugly Friday. The week started out well. Monday I had a full 9.9 pip scalp and a 8.5 scalp. No trades Tue. Wednesday was great. No trades till beginning of news conference. Switched to 1 min and caught a big part of the drop. Great week. Up over 15%. I normally call it a week at that point. I hate trading on Friday, but I did because I expected good numbers and a big EU drop. News out. Spike down. I went short at 52 and moved my SL out to 60 as I was “positive” she was headed down. It started up. I held because I was “positive” it was headed down. I finally got out with almost a 14% draw down. Not a big deal money wise – gave away a tad more than the weeks profits. The big deal is I violated several of my trading rules. I shouldn’t have traded on Friday – I got greedy and had a big head because of the week’s previous success. Had I traded my plan --I would have waited – the charts would have told me to go long bout 62 -63.
Posting this as, looking back, I learned 3 major things from Stu! !. You can make very good money scalping. 2. Develop your own method and stick to it like glue – do the same thing over and over. 3. The most important of all – protect your capital. As stated in another post, I have a hard stop of 9 pips and don’t trade if I feel that 9 pips will be endangered. I did not protect my capital – and it cost me.
Hope this helps someone - - it’s helped me. Copied the chart and posted it in my note book I keep my weekly records in – it won’t happen again. Busy, so taking a few days off from trading. Hope you got a nice piece of the FOMC, Ex! 
Hi Jim,
I got the same result that you did … read the NFP, unemployment rate down, no build in wholesale inventories and the unemployment rate reduced from 3.8% to 3.6% … which means employers are going to be fighting harder to tempt potential employees = more money around and more inflation. OK that last part will take some time.
So rule #1
The market is always right.
I held into the weekend with a small long on UJ and a small short on EU, figure I have plenty of margin available to wait out the truth and I am on the receiving side (to me) of the swap. However I am looking and considering whether this is going to be a painful journey and whether to quit now with a 3% loss.
Of course … this morning … the Norks have lobbed some missiles into the sea off the SK coast… Sunday night is going to be interesting.
The ultimate test of this is: does she eventually win big, as opposed to get fleeced.
There are companies in the UK which lend very short term on what amounts to huge AER. If you could get into the supply side of those companies … they are making hundreds of % on the loans and therefore only have to be right more often than they are wrong. So it is possible…
The companies I am into are listed on the UK LSE, and are trusted big name companies (mostly) such as AXA or Blackstone. I read the company wrap-sheets to make sure I trust the directors and look at the diversity of the investments. So far I have only been caught out once (fekkin’ Texans) and it looks as though that is going to come back break-even.
Since 2008 there has been an amount of regulation tightening in an attempt to stop a repeat of that type of crisis. Particularly lenders now have to retain a working interest in the loans they are managing … so no polishing of turds and selling-on as AAA-rated investments. As always DYOR.
The company on whom I was dented, RDL Realisation PLC, had its shares suspended last week due to the accounts not being ready to publish. The auditors are Deloitte and the suspension was RDL-requested because the accounts were not ready by 30th April. The accounts are expected no later than 17th May, and hopefully by 10th May (their words). So let’s see if they miss the 17th.
That aside the share price on RDL is well-depressed compared to its NAV, so after a quick read of the relevant bits of the finals when they appear I am tempted to buy more on an expectation of making up to 100% profit over 18 months. Even if things do not go according to plan I expect a 50% win on anything bought around 350 GBX. So for your wife’s interest perhaps… 
I think your EU safe. I expect a down EU week, upcoming. The pot bellied pig isn’t violating anything, just a little ego trip in front of his people, I think. He knows Trump will clean his clock if push comes to shove. Don’t like to hold over weekend – biggest threat to me is some politician uttering something stupid and causing a Sunday night gap. Trade safe, mate.
Does anyone know why GBP blasted off yesterday? Surely it couldn’t have been the Tories getting a hammering in the locals? 
Thank you for an excellent post!
As to your first paragraph: So far, she has been a winner. (She has turned a very small investment into almost $200,000–on paper, at least.) I just hope that is for real.
Guys just want to say please take no heed to to FOMC, NFPR or indeed any so called red news item and expect it to influence the market immediately. I can assure you it will observe certain levels regardless. I’ve probably said this before but I once had a signature along the lines of " Does price justify the news or news justify the price". It has a schedule to keep like a well run railway.
…in which case it is probably prudent to extract twice her original stake. Then she is playing will free money and has made 100% on her ante. Best of… 
I should say, this is just my opinion. 
I completely agree with all this, mate. Matter of fact, I have found in the relative short time I have been trading FX that even candles and other once reliable indicators don’t work as well as they used to. Markets seem choppier and the trends aren’t as defined as they used to be.
Love your railway analysis. Many uninitiated believe the market is random and a form of gambling. Nothing could be further from the truth. It is extremely well ordered and everything happens for a reason – though that reason could be as simple as a politician yapping. I see it as waves in the ocean – very rhythmic. Even during a storm and the waters get choppy, there is a defined rhythm. If one is willing to spend the time studying this rhythm, learning it then utilizing what they have learned – great profits can be made.
Your opinion is valued!
First trade of the week. Tight ranges. Hard to find something. What it looks like mid trade.
And payoff. Got out too early. Didn’t want to give up good profit. Take 7 pips any day! 
Well … surprise, surprise!
Further to the Company’s announcement released on 29 April 2019, Deloitte LLP has confirmed that valuation work required to finalise the audit is substantively complete. The Company now expects to publish its annual accounts for the financial year ending on 31 December 2018 by 28 May 2019.
The Company’s ordinary shares will remain suspended pending publication of the annual accounts following which the Company will request the suspension be lifted.
…an accurate motif
This is from the May/June 2019 issue of WG Financial Group; and I believe it may be relevant here:
“Will the market drop? When will the market drop? No one knows. We often view negative signs, like poor earnings reports, high debt-to-GDP ratios and political unrest as market indicators. However, it’s worth noting that, historically, the most severe market downturns followed periods of low volatility, high earnings reports, positive GDP growth and bullish sentiment. These ‘signs’ all preceded market drops in 1929, 1987, 2000 and 2007.”
Stu, I would assume these are commercials – bank employees rather than high end retails? Another reason to scalp – take advantage of what’s happening at the moment.
Eu continues to compress. At this point I give it equal chance of popping out the top of descending triangle but would expect it to go no further up than 1.15 area. If she pops out the bottom would expect it to go 1.04 -1.05 where there’s lots of buyers. Could continue to compress in this range for few weeks.
I will start the week being biased to the short side. Thing now is any politician yapping about tariffs in either Europe or China can cause little spikes and ripples. What SL’s are all about.
This made the regular news. I am glad to see some receiving slaps.
