Well … UJ was in such a tight range for more than a week I just felt that some major move is brewing. This may come next week because I recently read G&S echoing what I wrote above concerning lack of liquidity in JPY crosses precipitating some unexpected large moves.
…I wonder if they really get their tips by surfing the boards 
Always something brewing mate 
Pick a couple of levels above to short and a couple below to long and let the mob have the middle ground. 
The Goldman hot air machine follow the whole of FF, they put it all in the blender and feed it right back to the canon fodder 
What I will be looking for this week. This next week gonna be a heavy news week. I don’t use higher time frames for anything but getting a general idea where we headed. I had rather trade with the general trend so I like to know where she headed. The COT report continues to show the commercials continue to add short contracts (EU). I actually use the 15 and 5 min to look for entries. Then reduce to 2 or 1 min when in actual trade.
The 4 hr shows me we still in a downtrend.
The daily shows me we still in a strong downtrend but could retrace next couple days. I won’t trade Tokyo Sunday night as I want to see where London takes us.
The weekly chart what I find truly interesting. This chart tells me something big could be coming. Notice on the left (between yellow and red lines) we spent 5 weeks in this area couple years ago. We have just now spent 5 weeks in this area. We had the lowest print in almost 2 years this week. If this thing breaks support of first the red line then the bottom shoulder line she could drop 500 - 1000 pips in a couple weeks. Just remember – my thoughts and a buck fifty gets you a good, hot cup of joe!
Just placed my buy @ 105.50
I hope it doesn’t overshoot by more than a couple of hundred pips
My long order is still in @ 105.50, the bastards have taken the margin off my funds even though the order has not filled.
Done for the month. Quitting while I am ahead, and I am still in profit for the month and overall.
Now that I have loaded my SB account with sufficient funds to be usable the returns look less impressive. I will in any case now quote my returns as a percentage of what I have now rather than a percentage of what I started with September last.
So I am up 2.7% on the month. I was up more last week but I had a little trouble and…
I shall carry on trading at my previous position sizing until I feel I want to increase the pressure by taking a step up to the next leverage. In UJ it might be necessary in any case because that instrument does not move around enough to make much from the small movements.
If it ties up margin why not set an alarm for when you are within 30/40 pips ?
I thought you were kidding when I read you had set order as it’s so far away from the market.
You must have applied lots of polish to that crystal ball. 
If you put up a daily chart of UJ you will see on January 2nd a massive excursion. In one hour price dropped from about 108.90 to about 104.80, and then recovered to about 106.70. This all happened when I was maybe asleep, but definitely not paying attention to the market.
I am now a bit suspicious because the candle in question occurred at 22:00 GMT, so it may have been a fat-finger event. However it was allegedly caused by a lack of liquidity surrounding holidays. So … Japan is now shut until next week and hence the buy order way off the current market price.
On that reasoning I suppose I should place a sell order up at 118.00 or similar…
My broker loves me … 
… now waiting for the FOMC presser
…and for those who follow Gold
2nd Jan probably a very quiet day with regard to trading at market. The low liquidity revealed where the significant limits were. Anyway good luck with however you decide to play it.
I’ll play ping pong up and down 
REBATE !!..
Investing for Income
From time to time (and seeing as I’m waiting for the NFP I am revealing this method of mine) there are opportunities to invest in high-yielding instruments. By high-yielding I mean dividend returns typically in excess of 10% annually. There are investment companies who fund lease, PCP or hire-purchase facilities for retail customers and SMEs. The funding can be for anything from cars through business equipment to credit card borrowing and even house purchase.
Let’s be clear about this, the intention is to make serious income. Buy with the intention of holding forever. It might seem risky but it boils down to the same old adage, ‘nothing ventured nothing gained’.
First wrinkle … never buy at the flotation or IPO phase because there is usually a decline in stock price shortly after. This is not always the case, but often enough to dissuade me from leaping in at the IPO stage.
Second wrinkle … buy shares whose price has a large discount to NAV. I think of that as a form of insurance.
I am particularly exposed to the sub-prime lending market and I am trying really hard to diversify away from the US. Sub-prime may sound horrifying but the attraction is this … ‘prime’ borrowers pay around 5% for their borrowing and default rates are really low, around 1% or less. Therefore being on the supply-side for ‘prime’ lending is only going to return 4% typically. ‘Sub prime’ borrowers pay anywhere between 8% to 30% depending upon the circumstances; so we shall pick a figure of 15% by way of example. Default rates for sub prime borrowers are around 5% (or better) and therefore the return on this type of lending is ~10% being the difference between the effective rate (AER) minus the defaults as a percentage of the amounts lent.
There are a fair few companies working in this arena and a lot seem to be heavily into the US, so I guess that is where the most business is available. However I am finding companies operating in the same business arena but with a specific thrust into Europe and I am investing there also.
For some reason some of the websites are festooned with warnings about US persons being not ‘allowed’ to access company websites. I am not sure if this is to do with SEC regulations or some other restriction. So if you go fishing you might need a VPN. Similarly the company below declares that its documents are not for release into the USA and that readers are not allowed to reproduce any parts anywhere.
For that reason I am not posting the recent monthly fact sheet here…
There is a company by the name of VPC Specialty Lending Investments PLC which operates in the debt market and, “On 30 April 2019, Woodford Investment Management Ltd notified the Company of the sale of its shares in the Company. Substantially all of the shares have been placed with a mix of existing and new shareholders”. That means that a period of divestiture has come to an end and the stock price is probably about to start rising. That also means that the yield will reduce from its current figure of 11% down to 9%, and if the share price discount can be eradicated the yield will drop to 8%.
So if this kind of investment appeals, this instrument is more appealing right now.
I thought it was going to 800??
Yes … who knows?
Think it’ll go ‘‘no offer’’ before 800 but yep no-one knows.
Gold is now up $10 since the NFP !
( the NFP didn’t seem bad to me )
[quote="robgsxr, post:522]
[H]ow can anyone believe that the market is driven by economics.[/quote]
Personally, I have always found the most reasonably theory to be EMT (or Efficient Market Theory)…
I am not particularly familiar with E M T but I assume it is a term created to explain pricing of company shares and perhaps index pricing.
I would not know how it would factor into the forex market but as I said I am not familiar with the concept.
[quote=“Exodus, post:535, topic:155, full:true”]
Investing for Income
[B]uy shares whose price has a large
I am particularly exposed to the sub-prime lending market and I am trying really hard to diversify away from the US. Sub-prime may sound horrifying but the attraction is this … ‘prime’ borrowers pay around 5% for their borrowing and default rates are really low, around 1% or less. Therefore being on the supply-side for ‘prime’ lending is only going to return 4% typically. ‘Sub prime’ borrowers pay anywhere between 8% to 30% depending upon the circumstances; so we shall pick a figure of 15% by way of example. [/quote]
This sounds very much like the investment that my wife makes.
She invests in a company that makes loans to sub-prime borrowers. As a result, she says that she is paid eight percent per month (not per year) interest. (Those on the inside, she says, are paid 10 percent per month.)
I have not invested in this, as I am a bit leery of it–it sounds to me too much like a Ponzi scheme–but she has always been able to withdraw her money, when she chose to do so. So perhaps it is legitimate. I just cannot be sure…
