Market Traders Chewin' The Fat

I used to have Davit’s pivot trading indicator working until 2 weeks ago when I had to re-instal MT4. It won’t function now on my platform but you could try it on your brokers platform.
I can’t upload here so I will email to you outside of here.
The second one I will send does work ok but the format is not to my liking. You can change the appearance and it might suit.
I will send them now.

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This morning I pulled up a chart of UJ and started winding the time frame out further and further.

UJ has been stuck in a narrow range for 2 weeks, discounting yesterday’s impulse.
Or not discounting it, that was an indicator of a break-up brewing.

However on the weekly chart there in an up-pennant from June 2016…
Fairly solid resistance in the (unsurprising) 100 ~ 101 range

I have a level at 111.64
Anyone care to postulate which candle needs to close below that level to reveal the break-down?

edit:
It seems that Japan is shut next week, watch for extreme moves in JPY crosses.

Japan has an extended spring vacation, ‘Golden Week’, from 27th April to 6th May. This will be the longest market closure since the end of World War II, creating potentially hazardous market conditions due to the low liquidity expected across all markets during Asian hours.

I never have understood the concept of “which candle needs to break” Ex which is probably why my timing in so shit :rofl:

All I can see from my UJ chart is that an up leg hit it’s 112.312 level yesterday and triggered some shorts. Looks like more shorts piled in upto 112.236 in the asian session also (now today’s candle high).
If the big money trades the pattern there is potential to run down to 110.535 target before a reversal, or the whole thing goes tits up and breaks yesterdays high for a continuation skyward.
Not much help to you really :sweat_smile:

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That looks like a good set up!

They often do I just have a problem with execution :laughing:

Here is what I am seeing.

If you notice the trendline that has been intact since January is now within a wedge pattern. Either today, or possibly tomorrow could develop into breaking that trendline. If it does I am a seller! But you have to wait until today’s closing candle on the daily.

Edit: I forgot to add another scenario here. Because its in a wedge pattern, and lets say today’s closing candle respects the current trend line, then tomorrow might be where the real movement happens due to the US GDP report coming out. It could go either way IMO, if the GDP report is significant enough in terms of a huge lift in percentage points, the bulls could breakout of that wedge pattern and try for December of last years range in 113 to 114. If the GDP is still positive but less significant then a head fake could be in play. This def bears (:bear::bear::bear:) watching!

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Just for kicks. for those interested in the Eur/usd.
I have another pattern emerging that could see the price turn up. I am closing my short soon before the 1.1108 area.
If the last c-d leg plays out I will look for buying opportunities on the way up.
I use these patterns to give me some possible idea of direction for scalps off my monthly / weekly in keeping with Stu’s scalping genius.
Just because the last two wave patterns worked out perfectly doesn’t mean this one will so it is all supposition at this stage, however a good correlation is that there is a similar pattern emerging on eur/jpy :grin:

edit additional chart
Looks like some big money got in at the first opportunity 1.11188. That price loading up with long orders came from a move that started last year but made itself visible in feb this year:

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The other factor for xxxJPY is that Japan is shut next week.
Therefore tomorrow is effectively their end-of-month, so expect some book balancing.

Thanks for those, but unfortunately neither work for me. I’ve found one called News_Events, it’s the only one that works. Don’t really like it though.

That’s a shame I struggled with one of them also.
I have gained the habit of checking the news each morning but I think it still helps to see it on the chart.
If I find anything better I will ping it to you.

The blue and black level is what I was waiting for. The colour code hasn’t changed it is as per thread and will be found looking left on the appropriate chart for that colour.

I discussed the issue with having to “Ex Post Facto” with Jim but he asked that now and again if it’s relevant.

With regard to close above/below candles, it’s not something I look at, for me it’s already too late.

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Nice trade …:+1:

Stu so good at making the complex simple! :rofl:

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Too much. On the calculator over the weekend. Have increased risk so 2.74 pips now gives me 1% profit. Everything now seems to be on a “sweet spot” cept me – I’m the only weak link in my trad’in! :joy: Every couple weeks - so I will post the weeks trades. When I post, it will be all trades (good, bad, ugly) cept safeties which are one or less pips.





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How a trade in progress looks:

Trade opened

After 4-5 pips have cleared, the SL moved to safety

Completion

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Back in The Tomb there was/is a guy using the handle ForexHard, or similar. Like you he had come to an understanding of the way the market moved and started a thread to big himself up, and educate any who wanted to study.

The basis of the technique is that price only moves from one region to another when something pushes it in that direction, otherwise price stays roughly where it is. FH described a method of drawing a box around a candle-series and then waiting for a break from the box. The box was only valid if the time it contained was ‘several candles’, which on a 15-minute chart was at least 3 hours. Price would then move to another region where it would wait for further stimulus. Naturally the regions identify liquidity zones and therefore have a historic significance.

So when I asked anyone to opine about the possible movement of UJ…
Since 12th April until afternoon (GMT) of 24th April UJ had been contained in a box bounded to the upper by 112.15 and to the lower by 111.64. Then we had a couple of impulses drive both up and down, and now we are back into the range.

Hence my question. With the benefit of hindsight it appears that UJ has not moved, so we wait…

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Hey @StuFX, look what I found while exploring The Tomb !

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I don’t recall FX Hard but from what you describe I discussed also in one of my threads. Can’t remember which one now. But I did give a couple of live trades to illustrate.

I use it alot on the 1 min. Say I’m chasing a turn on the hourly, near the sweet spot you will get 1 min accumulation, it dips down out of the range to sucker in continuation traders and then straight back to the range and reversal in place with a little help from the stops of the continuation /breakout crew. As everything is scalable you see it right through the time frames but obviously more frequent the lower we go. So you might see it happen on a 15 min for a 4 hr swing or visible on the 4hr for daily/weekly etc.

This is why I have banged on so much over the years about the beauty of getting to know the characteristics of the tiny time frames. It can really help to dial in larger swing points if that is what you are in search of. So many people are just so unaware of their surroundings (not suggesting you EX !). They want to travel 300 miles in the direction they have in mind and there is every chance that journey can happen but all too often not without backtracking 200 miles from the current location to pick up some first class passengers !

So when you say we wait , from what perspective do you say that ? Wait to see if it gets back to 1.1215 to short or lower to long ? Or join mid journey ?

Not that it’s so bad to join mid journey but it’s obviously better to not go long on the minute time frame from a pullback situation only to find it’s the terminal point on an hourly swing which is about to become short and obviously this can be related right through the time frames. Again EX not directed at you but this kind of thinking might not be so obvious to onlookers.

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HA Ha someone else took a wrong turn in the catacombs.:grin:

All three pairs making a good start on their respective patterns.
Now if all three continue to the finale, how can anyone believe that the market is driven by economics. As Stu and I have always believed, maybe it’s all just smoke and mirrors.
Anyway 3% up for the day so I am going to the beach for a run.
FFS don’t anyone use my data, I am still wrong often so please don’t trust anything I show. It is here just for amusement.

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