Trader Talk Thread 💱

Cheers Alex, I hope the air stays fresh in here ! :+1:

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A recent hypothesis, which seems reasonable, is that a hard Brexit will cause GBP to go down further, and a smooth or agreed exit will cause GBP to rise again … in which case an acquaintance has indicated that he will go in heavy and long on Cable or something.

In reality there is liely to be hard Brexit with some sort of patch-up, a gentleman’s agreement ( :rofl: ) to move in a particular direction. So then I guess price will wobble a bit, or a lot, whilst people figure out what is likely to happen next.

I really don’t understand any of Project Fear. Nobody has ever said why. I think it’s like the year 2k scaremongering. Nothing will happen with a “hard Brexit.”

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For all in the UK the falling pound isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
Exports increase, tourism increases.

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Investments increase, lots of people need to buy £ and £ goes up. We don’t export much. Our biggest are financial services, arms and music. So go pick a fight with someone and buy more ginger millennial music (Ed Sheeran, who sings about bleaching his arsehole.)

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This is where I was at in Jan with a 31 March leaving date.

I’ll stick with it but just like Treason May might need an extension on end of year ! :laughing:

Still it’s only 4k pips or so away and cable can do that in 3 months or so with the wind behind it.

Disclainer !
Trading Is A Risky Business Don’t Risk What You Can’T Afford To Lose … :laughing::laughing:

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That is the problem, we do not export much at all and GBP has fallen from the global currency king-pin position it once had.

However the real problem is confidence. A bankster being interviewed recently opined that current business investment had fallen to near zero, and it is true to say that when the EU wants to start getting uppity the automotive industry will suffer. Also the financial services sector will suffer since it will require licenses to operate in the EU, or a bunch of new offices will open in e.g. Frankfurt.

On the up side tourism should blossom, and fewer Brits will go abroad for holidays due to the awful exchange rate. The UK’s oil and gas industry will boom as it fulfils local demand, gas particularly.

Manufacturing should thrive as the UK’s labour rates become competitive. That might take a while though.

If we don’t do a deal, then as we export so little, it’s not going to be us who suffers. It will be the German car manufacturers. We are their second largest market just a tad behind the US, but the US is 5-6 times our size in terms of population. The EU will slap tariffs on our exports, big bloody deal, but we will do the same to them. Trump has been moaning about the crap deal they have with the EU. He will slap on tariffs too. So Germany are screwed. Even with the help of the other European basket cases helping to keep the Euro down, that will not be enough. Boris and Trump will work together to bring down the EU.

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Germany is already teetering on the brink of recession.

So … short when 1.20 fails … and then long from 1.05 :smile:

It’s broken through the trendline today and it’s currently retracing back to it. Buy limit near the line I reckon. :stuck_out_tongue_closed_eyes:

We got a new home???

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Hello Jim… :hugs:

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Hello Jim. Welcome back.
Dr Madhatter derailed the other thread by being too much of a constant distraction and a spoiled brat.
This is in the RH category so it’s troll free.

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Hellooooo Jim!! :hugs:

As you will soon find out I gained myself a couple more unhinged stalkers. Worse than Winston. :joy:

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Go long on Lawn choppers ! Good to see ya Jim !!

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I have some buy levels that are full of cobwebs under that. :grin:

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LOL

But silver is the one to watch now.

Interesting that risk-aversion is driving gold but silver didn’t follow.