Tracking actual, as opposed to reported, COVID-19 infections

When there is very little testing, “reported” or “confirmed” infections simply are not a meaningful statistic for tracking the pandemic. Has anyone found a source of information modeling actual infections, as opposed to statistics on the small minority of people who are allowed to get tested that the states and administration can’t figure out a way to avoid reporting?

Eventually, we will presumably be estimating the death count based on regional deaths above seasonal average, but right now I’m not sure anyone is really getting a handle on it.

My intuition is that the ratio of infections to reported positive tests is at least 10-1 and possibly as high as 100-1. And yes, I believe it is being deliberately covered up.

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I seriously doubt that. Many sources of fatal outcomes (accidents, fights, crime) will be way down. Some others (domestic violence) might be up. (I say might be because alcohol could become scarce and push that down.) And if the bodies really do stack up, cause of death will mostly become presumptive as medical examiners are drafted to work on the still living rather than confirm the expected.

If we don’t know cause of death, we can’t really say much of anything.

The techniques of death estimation after a natural disaster seem to assume a single point of perturbation with the system returning to status quo ante quickly after. We’re looking at months of perturbation and who knows if society will “snap back” to the previous equilibrium?

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Society isn’t going to bounce back to normal after this. Our economic and political systems have proven to be incredibly fragile and the average person is just starting to become aware of this. They’re also understanding that there is little the government can do to help. Employers are also going to have terms dictated to them by their employees going forward because this crisis just proved that the majority of jobs don’t need to be done on location with a bunch of unsanitary people in close proximity to one another.

I rather see less illegals roaming our streets bring third world bugs with them . Open borders is what got us into this mess . Instead of us being quarantined every foreigner has to be quarantined for 30 before being allowed into OUR Country . Americans have far too many regulations to follow , it’s time THEY START !!!

This thread appears to be oriented around discussion of tracking actual or reported cases. I see no problem with it being a separate thread.

So far, there is no tracker posted here.

This one says “Tracking”

The one I started says “Tracker”

Just because someone starts a thread on COVID-19 does not mean that all discussions of it will be appropriate for that thread. For example, the economic ramifications of the pandemic could be a separate topic (posted on the Economics category) from the suggested survival techniques (posted in the Survival category). Another interesting topic would be “How has the pandemic affected your life? Be specific.” (maybe posted in the Lounge)

If I start a thread related to the Bible, that doesn’t mean that no other Bible related threads should be allowed?

Just forget about it, I don’t want to go down this rabbit hole. I will remove my comments.

Then the replies won’t make sense.

It doesn’t matter. You are right I am wrong.

I doubt it. Americans have proven resilient at brewing and winemaking and distilling our own ethanol beverages. Unlike fracking, alcohol makers are not seeing a short-term price plummet drive them out of business. Unlike manufacturers who use specialty metals, alcohol manufacturers are not seeing supply-chain disruptions from overseas sources. Unlike sellers of flower baskets, alcohol manufacturers can continue modern mechanized production without having to shut down due to excess human contact with the product.

The wine-and-liquor stores here are doing fine, especially with the bars closed except take-out food. The grocery beer sections are doing good business and getting restocked daily. Lots of demand but no supply shortage seen nor forecast.

So pandemic-related, stress-triggered, alcohol-exacerbated, violence-routed deaths are more likely to continue increasing than to plateau and drop due to scarcity.

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