What is ignored is the labor participation rate which is still blow pre pandemic levels.
Despite receding from the highs of last summer, inflation remains near its highest levels in decades as disinflation (particularly in services) has recently slowed to a crawl. Meanwhile, US economic growth has been on a downward trajectory over the past few years, including a brief recession in the middle two quarters of 2022!!!
What’s currently missing from the full stagflationary scenario is elevated unemployment. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U-3 US unemployment rate as 3.5 percent in March 2023, which is near historic lows. Indeed, low employment has been a thorn in Fed officials’ side since they began hiking short-term rates in March of 2022. The below chart depicts the current, stagflation lite conditions: high inflation (March 2023 year-over-year headline CPI at roughly 5 percent), declining economic growth (1st quarter 2023 US GDP at 1.1 percent), and U-3 employment at 3.5 percent.
(Source: Bloomberg Finance, LP)
Could a full stagflationary episode evolve from this? It’s possible that one already is, according to two sources of data.
A problem, or The problem with characterizing downturns is each one is slightly different. That’s because govt causes them with its own spending, and then does all the stats that are reported of the masses. It works out like a kid in the printing curriculum at school making his own report cards which he shows Mom & Pop, but signs the real one with Mom & Pops signature and returns it to school. The govt is able to use sets of input which reflect well on them and exclude sets that would get them thrown out of office, -always changing the exact characterization of Report A or B or whatever as being more representative of the current economy. …”We do this now; but not that anymore…” so inflation is counted differently than what we think of as a basket of goods we need to buy constantly, and the govt’s substitute basket includes things we’ve never heard of. That’s the beauty of running the asylum yourself; you get to say what crazy is and how we measure it. GIGO
inflation is counted differently than what we think of as a basket of goods we need to buy constantly,
If you buy food, gas pay your utilities, your inflation rate is much higher. The government number is for reference and measurement only. Imagine the outrage if they told people the truth.
Politicians are taking a bow for lowering the rate of inflation to 3%. The Media is cheering them on. Meanwhile back at the ranch, prices are up 30+% and will never return to the past.
Slow growth, stubbornly persistent inflation, campus unrest, war in the Middle East, military tension with Russia—it has echoes of the 1970s, when President Ford failed to win the 1976 election and President Carter failed to win the 1980 election. In a democracy, when the economy and the geostrategic situations sour, voters fire the incumbent president.
And the best is that people will once again re-elect the same people who have trashed the economy and country.
Not on any of my lists !!!
What we use and need most electric(+48%) and housing(+60%) , gasoline(+56%) natural gas(+41%) used cars (+65%) car rentals(+65%) beef (+39%) eggs (+57%) are close to double digit increases !!!
Exactly. The list should reflect the highest % possible of goods & services that the average household spends money on. When times change, it should, too. When people stop eating and live in caves they can de-list food & shelter.
But that would be the honest way to deal with the voters, and we all know that won’t happen unless and until a real President Of The People begins on day one and leaves office with that fully in place. Then screwing it up would be political suicide. I could live with that! I could help!
Look at the bright side; he won’t be running again, he will fall down on cue a few days before the Dem convention if, and after, making a deal for a pardon à la Ford-Nixon. Watch for him to make several arrangements (surreptitiously) with support for Presidential candidate Newsom, California Gov in exchange for a pardon for Hunter of the state charges, then he can pardon Hunter’s federal charges which will happen as soon as both trials are concluded, probably with pleas to suddenly speed things up, -no conclusion; no deal possible. Then the Grand Finale pratfall; fall down go boom with parades of ambulances and SS men with AR-15’s to make it look good, and he never again appears in public unless he’s in a wheelchair with a stupid look on his face. As such, it’s a lock for never being able to prosecute him as unfit to stand trial. He goes incognito and disappears into the sunset years sipping cocktails on the beach with Hunter who will also shrink from view. Ipso facto, he gets away with everything. So does Hunter and the family recedes from the center of attention. American Justice system at its finest moment. Democrats, 738; GOP, 0, just business as usual.
Naturally, there will be a need for an issue to misdirect the proletariat’s attention, but it needs to be something big. A big Red Herring. An assassination could be a handy stalking horse. Who don’t we need? How about a bombing at the Dem convention? They could have hundreds of speculations, a different one for each media outlet; ABC could blame the GOP, NBC could blame KKK, KKK could blame blacks, CBS could blame Baptists, Baptists blame Hamas, Hamas blame Jews, CNN could blame FOX, the FBI could arrest Trump and remain mute about why, but raid and leave guards at every Trump residence & office, then arrest Trump supporters, maybe one every other day, without comment. The media would go nuts. People would forget about Joe & Company. Dems, 739; GOP -4. Not another summer of love, but a summer of media blitz.
First, he’s out of control now and not reliably controllable, per sé. He’s borderline senile and the prime indicator displayed is usually obstinacy. Not reasoned objections by someone who has an agenda, just a resistance to any suggestions that require him to think which becomes harder & harder as the brain deteriorates and it becomes impossible to follow deep or long-ish thoughts. Or even short thoughts. It has nothing to do with how intelligent or stupid the younger person was, it is a matter of neurons no longer being connected so continuity of thought is interrupted by dead ends or wrong connections that detour attention to, most often, an unrelated issue. They do not understand why they can’t think and that leads them to be angry that somebody is compelling them be involved in something right now and they have no idea what to do. Result; intense anger. It only gets worse and worse. He’s really close to slipping into the final stages of nothing but anger and resistance to everything and the need to be sedated more often than not. They need to satisfy his requirements to voluntarily step down while he is still somewhat coherent, and they don’t have much time to do it. He knows he & Hunter & family need protection from prosecution and has more enemies than he can deal with. That instills constant fear; he also knows he only has one out; the Dems are the only thing standing between him and the myriad enemies that want to crucify him and Dems need to guarantee his protection before he losses the election and is thrown to the wolves. He only has one trump card left and that’s exchange the pardon for him & his for stepping down early enough to suit the party. Unfortunately, the value of that card diminishes with every day as the resistance to Joe transmutes into resistance to Dems. The Dems are going to lose ’24, so they need someone to look like a candidate, even knowing they will lose so badly they are being escorted into oblivion. Guess who that might be? If they let him lead the ticket they can lose safe seats everywhere. It’s hard to guess which, -the party or Joe, is in the worst position. Like two guys in the middle of the ocean with one shark circling; do you want to be eaten by a shark or die slowly treading water until you can’t? The shark is sorry he can only eat one.
