The Florida government has been releasing their early voting data by party (and not affiliated) and President Trump basically already has Florida in the bag. Biden’s campaign is likely to know they already lost Florida by the time election day even rolls around. North Carolina is also looking good for Trump so far (they’ve been releasing data). Recent polls in Florida have been between Trump+4 and Biden+6, with a RCP aggregate of Biden+1.2. If Florida is any precedent for the rest of the country, the pro-Biden polls are very wrong.
Where are we with Ohio and Pennsylvania?
Never been wrong? Sounds good. For how many elections have you been creating this legacy of picking the winner?
This is my 4th election. In 2008, I got every electoral vote correct. This time I really put myself out there with Nevada and Minnesota. The safe bet would’ve called these Dem, but they are both polling close, Minnesota was lost by only 1.5% last time, Trump put time and money into winning Minnesota, and there are issues that have him popular there in the North such as with the mining.
That’s not correct. I just posted in another thread the Florida polling numbers.
NBC/Marist puts Biden up 4.4 in new FL poll
NBC?
I’m not talking about a poll. I’m talking about actual votes that are in. The vote in Florida is currently Dems+220k but just yesterday they were Dems+305k. Dems voted earlier and now they are losing votes so quickly (assuming there isn’t massive party crossover) that come election day they’ll be quite a bit behind AND Republicans will be set to vote at a higher rate on election day.
Florida is done! Stick a fork in it!
Media Polling narratives are collapsing! Minnesota for example hasn’t gone to a Republican since 1972, and now Joe Biden is traveling there to campaign?
The below is your prediction? If so it’s without the Mail In Vote Fraud, the below is what happens with a legit election, days and days after the election I expect PA, MN, AZ, GA and NC to be given to Biden and then I hope The Trump Campaign is ready to take the gloves off to fight the fraud.
If people are willing to go to prison for voter fraud, that just leads right to the top of the Democrat party.
Ohio is just about a must. (I do not think that a Republican has ever won the presidency–at least, not in recent times–without carrying Ohio.)
Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes are also quite important. I really thought that Biden had this state in the bag–until his recent admission that he intends to end fracking, if elected as president. (Many Pennsylvanians are either themselves employed by the oil industry, or have friends or relatives who are employed by it.)
But Florida may well be the key: Biden could possibly lose Florida, and still win the presidency. I am not at all sure, however, that Trump could do the same. (In fact, it is doubtful, I believe, that he could.)
You’re basically correct. If Biden loses Florida and Pennsylvania he loses. If he wins just Florida, he needs to pick up a state like Minnesota still, but if he wins just Pennsylvania then he basically needs to sweep Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Are you guys taking into account the planned, massive fraud Dems are going to pull, including
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voter intimidation at the polls
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carefully timed fake news
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Inserting a virus into voter machine software
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vote harvesting like what is being currently done by Ilhan Omar in Minnesota
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Vote reminders sent exclusively to Democrats by Facebook, Google and other social media
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Merging likely Republican name/addresses into the computer database at certain Postal Sorting centers to separate out selected mail-in ballots for disposal
?
I appreciate your input! I agree Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida are three states that Trump takes and will be next to impossible for Biden to win the election. So far all indications are leaning in Trumps favor especially considering the silent voter on Election Day.
All states that are toss ups right now. IMO it doesn’t favor Biden. Remember the blue wall? I believe it’s worse this time and the recent riots factors into blue and independents souring on Democrats.
I agree that things are leaning a bit toward President Trump–and not just because of the “shy” Trump voter, either (although that should really not be discounted).
There is also the matter of enthusiasm.
Those polls that indicate that Joe Biden has a massive lead may not be exactly “wrong”; but they simply do not factor into account the matter of enthusiasm.
A person who is nominally for Joe Biden–but not especially excited about him (and who, to be honest, could be excited about Joe Biden)–may not make the effort to stand in line for hours, and vote.
But many Trump supporters–many of them!–would walk over broken glass, barefooted, to vote for their candidate.
The only real question, then, is whether enough people are similarly motivated to vote against President Trump.
I truly hope not.
But we will soon see.
You are absolutely right on all accounts!
Did you see this? He actually brought a fracking well to a rally! Look at the size of that crowd in PA! They know a vote for Joe is going to be a job killer!