Winter Is Coming

currency
debt
#1

Winter Is Coming

Despite an abundance of natural resources, the presence of Silicon Valley, and its general wealth (California is the fifth largest economyin the world, one spot ahead of Britain), California is very deep in debt because of its spending habits.

The state officiallyfinds itself $462 billion in the hole, roughly $12,000 per resident. If local governments are included, that figure grows to $1.3 trillion—more than half of the state’s gross domestic product. When the state’s unfunded pensions and other liabilities are factored in, the picture grows even worse.

Politicians and masters of coin will resort to all sorts of shenanigans to fund their operations and appetites.

Politicians and masters of coin will resort to all sorts of shenanigans to fund their operations and appetites, including taxes on brothels, drinking water, and lap dances.

Accounting gimmicks work for a time, but the bill eventually comes due. Game of Thrones might be a fictional story, but it holds a very real lesson: Winter will come eventually. It always does.

Another example is Illinois:
Illinois has compiled $14.6 billion in unpaid bills. It’s running a deficit of $6 billion, and its pension liability has soared to $130 billion.

That’s not the worst of it. The state’s nearly two-year failure to pass a budget has sent its bond ratings careening toward junk level, downgraded a staggering eight notches below most other states.

But the best example is our own Federal Government and w have topped 22 trillion in debt and it’s accelerating. We can blame Bush, Obama or Trump but the reality is 2/3rds of spending is mandated by law. Laws passed by congress and can only be changed by congress.

Our wonderful congress argues over 5 billion dollars for border security while we spend hundreds of billions to support our illegals and asylum seekers. Our wonderful congress talks about healthcare programs costing 30-40 trillion yet ignore the reality, we are broke.

When will the light finally come on? When we reach 3rd world status?

#2

The end is actually already in sight: rumblings of the end to the Petrodollar.

The Petrodollar is one of only two reasons why people continue to buy our debt. The other, if you’re smart but already highly invested, is the need to draw down your exposure, to replace only some of the debt you sell off or redeem, that way when the canaries finally land you’re already on the way out of the plane’s door pulling at your parachute’s rip cord.

Never buy a US Treasury bond.

When you see the Petrodollar’s status finally challenged don’t wait for your dollars to be worth less than the canned beans and shotgun shells you’ll need for what comes next.

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