Everything I’ve read about him makes him seem very good on many issues and he’s getting a lot of positive attention from the media too. I’ve heard him interviewed at length on Deconstructed , the podcast associated with The Intercept and was impressed by him there as well. I’m sure there are some positions he takes that I disagree with, but if I could press a button and he would defeat Trump in 2020 I wouldn’t hesitate to do so rather than take my chances with someone whose views might line up more with mine now, e.g., Sanders or Warren.
Yet, despite the above, I do not want him to be the Democrats’ presidential nominee for only one reason: electability. Yes, it’s because he’s gay, but not because I care about that. I’m an atheist, but would oppose nominating a fellow non-believer who didn’t hide that fact, even if I agreed with that person on every issue.
My position is based entirely on public opinion survey data. A Gallup poll taken in 2015, while headlining opposition to a socialist candidate, indicated that 24 percent of the population would not vote for a gay or lesbian candidate. Maybe there is a newer poll, but I haven’t seen one yet. The number opposed might go down a few points in 2019, but would still be quite high. In fairness, the numbers opposed to a gay or lesbian candidate were much higher in the past, according to the survey. On the other hand, people might be more reluctant to reveal prejudices to pollsters these days.
But, one might say, the Democrats would not have nominated Obama in 2008 based on the identical reasoning. The reasoning was identical indeed, but the numbers were not. In that same poll only 7 percent indicated they would not vote for a black Presidential candidate., and it was 5 percent in 2007, the year before Obama won the first time…the poll has an appendix which provides trends regarding this question. One has to go back to the late 60s to find as high a percentage of Americans who said they would not vote for a black candidate for president.
Moreover, Obama’s victory came in the aftermath of a near collapse of the economy. No GOP candidate could survive that, but analysts felt Obama’s victory would have been significantly greater if everything was the same about him other than his skin color. In fact, it was estimated he lost about 4 points because he was black. What he gained to make up for that was an enormous increase in black turnout.
But what about 2012? By then Obama was a known quantity and so racist tropes were not going to be as effective as they might have when he first ran. Moreover, in his first term, Obama made sure to avoid being viewed as a black President. Still, given his pulling us out of the Crash, and running against the uncharismatic Romney, one would have imagined a landslide victory.
Significantly, Buttigieg came out as gay only after he had shown what he could do as mayor, not when he was first running. He did a great job and was re-elected in a landslide. I have little doubt Buttigieg could be re-elected. It’s the first time that’s my concern.
Now, it is certainly true that the people who would never vote for a gay or lesbian for President might have other views that would reduce the likelihood they would ever vote for any Democrat. In the case of Obama, racists vote Republican anyway on many other issues (many of which are coded forms of racism) so Obama might not have lost a lot of “gettable” votes.
Evangelicals and deeply religious people of any religion (with the likely exception of Islam, because of the Trump and the GOP’s intense Islamophobia}, tend overwhelmingly to vote GOP. But, black and Latino voters, especially the former, are overwhelmingly supporters of Democrats.
Black support for gay marriage—unfortunately, I haven’t found the breakdown by race for the poll on supporting a gay or lesbian President—has been decidedly less than among whites (48% to 63%). Blacks who are gay or lesbian, especially gay, are more apt to have to hide that fact than whites. The term “down low” is specific to the experience of gay or bi black men.
Among Latinos, the situation is more complex. Support for gay marriage is just a few points less than among whites (61 percent) and there seems to be a divide in which the more religious members of the Latino population tend to be more hostile towards it. Perhaps these Latinos tend to vote GOP more anyway, in which case it would be less of a problem for Buttigieg. But, certainly a nominee that would reduce black turnout for the Democrats in 2020 would be disastrous. This would be especially harmful in Milwaukee, Detroit, and Philadelphia, because those cities are in the key states that gave Trump victory in 2016.
The GOP, of course, wouldn’t be able to get black voters to vote for Trump. They could just run a false flag campaign to depress black votes, as they have done against other candidates with other constituencies.
One soft sign of the GOP wanting to run against Buttigieg is the very favorable FB comments I’ve seen about him on threads I’m on from GOP supporters who relentlessly attack all Dems. I can’t help but think they are being strategic and letting liberals imagine Buttigieg could be a cross-over candidate. But, that’s just a hunch.
Honesty requires me to admit the 50 percent highlighted in the same survey said they wouldn’t vote for a Socialist. Sanders, doesn’t use that self-descriptor these days for good reason (hugging FDR not Debs), might also be a liability, even though I’m supporting him until polls actually demonstrate that–not so far. I do think Sanders is going to be viciously attacked by the GOP, which held its fire when he was running against Clinton because they thought she was the stronger candidate. But, if Sanders is the nominee the gloves will be off. One of the reasons I’m happy he’s going on Fox is because he will no doubt be forced to respond to those talking points in that venue—unless the moderators hold their fire for the same reason the Trump camp did in 2016—save it for November.
But Buttigieg can’t redefine himself the way Sanders is trying to–and Sanders might fail in that effort. Now, if Buttigieg becomes well known and polls show that opposition to a gay President is now minuscule, even among key Democrat demographics, I’ll be delighted to change my mind. But I think the fact the media hasn’t harped on it does not mean a thing. It’s the elephant in the room.
In many areas of life our own choices are all that matters–what we eat, who we love, our favorite teams and movies. But, when choosing a candidate we also have to take into account what others voters think. One more thing I feel the need to address, because when I originally posted this on the Daily Kos, a few people accused me of being an open or unconscious homophobe. Nothing could be further from the truth and i replied to those accusations with the following question: Do you think a Muslim-American could be elected President now and, if not, would that make you an Islamophobe or just a realist in terms of the powerful prejudices a significant portion of Americans irrationally have towards Muslims.
Here’s the survey and again, one can look behind the topline numbers and view trends when the question was aked in the past…link towards bottom of the article.
your essay.