Trump Looking Ahead to 2024

US News & Politics
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Just read an Op-ed by a non-Trump GOP rueing Trump’s detrimental effect on the party. One sentence reminded me of something I had forgotten: Trump’s threat to start a third party to be a spoiler if the GOP establishment distanced itself from him. That threat was from before he became President. See the clip below.

However, now, it seems, a threat could also come from a quarter within the GOP if Trump is the nominee, which, despite Murdoch and others’ wishes, is still the overwhelming likelihood. The vast majority of GOP elected officials, whatever their private thoughts might be, will not alienate Trump, but the threat could come elsewhere.

Trump is still, by far, the most popular GOP. Half the GOP voters are Evangelicals and Trump appointed the Supreme Court Justices who put Roe in the dustbin of history…their biggest wish list item. Moreover, a fair number of primaries are winner-take-all, or become that once a candidate gets more than 50 percent, and Trump’s possible opponents, DeSantis, Pence, Cruz, and Hawley, will divide the non-Trump vote.

But, pro-Trump GOP is worried about a conservative spoiler, and Liz Cheney, with nothing to lose now that her House seat is lost, and a huge amount of name recognition, could very likely run as a third-party candidate in states that could tip toward Dems.

In either scenario, Trump threatening to ruin a DeSantis nomination, or Cheney, or some other GOP with high name recognition, undermining Trump is very possible. Dems should encourage both, even if under-the-radar.

My only concern is that moderate and liberal media have made Cheney such a hero…she does deserve immense credit for sacrificing her career and safety…that a significant portion of low-information Dem voters, or independents and GOP who voted against Trump, might end up making her more a problem for the Dem candidate.

Cheney, while great vs. Trump, had one of the most right-wing voting records in Congress, and even within the GOP. She voted with Trump 93 percent of the time. She is akin to Churchill, awful in every way as a domestic reactionary and imperialist, but rose to the occasion against Hitler. After the war, the Brits wanted nothing to do with his domestic politics.

Here’s a blast from the past, which could be a premonition:

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I could be wrong, but I think Cheney will avoid spoiling things for Dems and focus on spoiling things for MAGAs (at least, net overall).

I’ll never vote for her, but some Repugs might.

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If the Democrats come up one or two members short of a majority in the house, they should nominate Cheney as their candidate for speaker of the house and see if they could peel off 2 or 3 Republicans.

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That would be her intent, but the result could be unexpected.

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Do you really want Cheney as Speaker? This is precisely my concern.

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I really want a Dem as speaker.

But a case could be made that Cheney as speaker would be better than McCarthy or pretty much any other Republican.

A case could also be made that letting the Repugs stew in their own MAGA juices (or forcing them to, or nudging them to) would be the better result.

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That is an argument against doing anything at all. The result of trying to end hunger could be unexpected, as could the result of trying to combat racism. SFW?

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Apart from her view on Trump her political views are awful. What even moderate domestic policies supported by Dems in the House and the Dems in the Senate would she support? She would support all our wars, of course.

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So you think McCarthy would be a better choice? Or would you prefer someone even more MAGA-friendly?

Which Republican would you prefer to have as speaker over Cheney?

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No, but if the Democrats come up short, say 216 or 215, there is zero chance we will get a Democratic speaker.

So what would be a better alternative? Cheney has shown she will put the country first when she had everything to lose. Now that she has nothing to lose, I would trust her even more. Besides, her base of support would be Democrats, not Republicans, She would have to toe a very moderate line to govern.

In any event, I haven’t given it deep thought, but look I look at the examples of Elizabeth Warren and Merrick Garland. The Republicans totally screwed them around. In both cases I don’t think they are laughing anymore. So not sold on my own idea, but a 1 or 2 seat Republican majority give Democrats plenty of opportunity to exploit divisions in the Republican party.

Then again, maybe this is the better course.

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Surely Cheney would be best case Republican…

But why would we help Republicans?

We were saved 1000x by Trump’s incompetence. I suspect similar from any Republican that can get all Republicans to make them speaker.

We’ll be saved by the multiple sackings of Speakers unable to be effective.

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It’s a non-starter,i.e., Cheney. So not worth even wasting time discussing pros and cons. Yes, she would scuttle various House hearings. But, she would also make sure no social spending or other liberal legislation has a chance. But that’s true now with GOP majority. Still it’s not going to happen.

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While I tend to agree with you, the counter point would be Democrats spent millions of dollars helping MAGA candidates in the primaries. Your already wet, might as well take a bath.

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What’s cool about Republican in fighting it shows we aren’t bought and paid for. Democrats all toe the line, never step out or fear losing the money laundering they successfully have systematically achieved.

It’s pretty refreshing knowing one party isn’t as corrupt as the other.

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They helped MAGA candidates in order to make victory easier (and it worked). That would be the logic behind opposing Cheney, not supporting her. And I do think it’s a fairly compelling case.

The counter-argument is that we should help Cheney because it’s less likely to hurt America. But I’m not sure how much difference that makes given that we seem to be holding control of the Senate.

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Sure, it’s not going to happen, but that didn’t stop you from opining that Cheney would be a bad choice.

So since we’re discussing a hypothetical, which Republican would be a better choice for us to support?

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The difference is we helped them dig their own hole in the primaries,

Helping them w/ their speaker problem is just helping them out of that hole.

I say leave them be, they will only keep digging.

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I agree there is a difference in the strategy of helping Republicans win primaries with the intent of defeating them in the general, and the strategy of nominating Cheney for Speaker of the House. But at the end of the day, they are both strategies for maximizing Democratic power.

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I have no opinion because any one is a bad one. But I just want Cheney to run vs. Trump in certain states, and only then if she is certain to hurt Trump more than Dems who may not know anything about her apart from hearings. Polling should determine who she would hurt more.

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In that case, you might want to edit or remove the post where you expressed your opinion.