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So … we are somewhere between a correction and a bear market
Next week will be interesting.
I am watching the oil majors.
The main question is … how big a stake?
$50 a barrel and below reaches borderline profits for many oil production companies.
… how big a stake?
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Been a wonderful two weeks scalping the EU. I made really good money and I expect Stu Boy cleaned up. He make a bunch when market dancing around! As far as the stock market, I think the worst over and DOW 25000 holds. Lotta stocks now a good buy. Not one person has died from the Chinese virus but thousands have died from the common flu. The democrat hierarchy and the media, being the bastards they are, are hoping a bunch die and the market crashes cause they think it helps them get rid of Trump. They desperately trying to scare the hell out of the American public. Unfortunately, a lotta wusses in the US and quarter to third run screaming for a “safe place” when somebody scream BOO! Us old timers know the best deals exist when there’s blood in the streets. Gonna be entertaining watching the soros crowd when Trump wins the biggest landslide in American presidential history!
Actually, I’m happy to see a correction now because when Trump debates whichever Marxist clown the dems produce the market roars again. Currently 25 to 28 percent of Trump rally attendees are unhappy democrats.
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A little heads up if anyone got any old £20 notes under the bed the first issue of the new polymer note was on 20th Feb. The B.O.E. haven’t issued a statement yet for the old notes but when they do it’s normally six months notice.
There are some things you should know about the oil industry.
When the barrel price drops the first producers to squeal are the American Frackers.
Their production costs are very large.
Everyone else simply trims their exploration budget.
Technological advancement has reduced fracking costs, but they remain significant.
The reality is that this is a temporary disruption.
Some businesses might go to the wall, all the oil majors survived the 2014/15 blood-bath.
The majority of badly-run businesses with too much leverage went to the wall.
As did companies with a high OPEX such as some Canadian oil-sand businesses.
The cost to extract oil to well-head storage is below $5 per barrel for the Saudis.
Most of the middle-east is between $5 and $10 plus corruption costs.
Offshore operators naturally have higher costs but even they are not as bad as you might think. Here is a recent extract from last August’s interim results by Premier Oil.
Note that their OPEX is $16 per barrel, so they should survive an extended period with prices not much above $20 per barrel … the frackers will not.
The oil majors will present a buying opportunity if market-panic depresses share prices as it did in 2014/15. The oil majors are refining their business model, they remain energy suppliers but are shifting their business focus to include ‘renewable’ energy sources such as solar and wind derived electricity.
Last week the share prices of Chevron, Phillips and Total were down more than 10%, I did not look at Standard Oil (or whatever they are called these days). BP was down around 20% IIRC. Royal Dutch Shell was thumped badly, down around a third.
I am hoping for another week as bad as the last, actually I am waiting for a further depression in prices and if the markets drifts down rather than cliff-edge then that will be fine. Within a year there will be a total recovery, excepting other Acts of God…
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Keeping powder dry today – G7, virus fears, and super Tuesday here – expecting some sudden spikes. Love volatility – the controlled kind.
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The Dow opened at 27078 today - Immediately after Powells statement it dropped 1000 points - I thought they were trying to calm the markets???
Not sure that’s the case. Think fed trying to balance out what the EU is charging plus the fact Trump stays on Powell’s ass. Like him or not, Trump keeps his eye on all things concerning the economy – a businessman, not a politician. He does what he thinks is correct – screw the dems, media and their perverted BS. Trump has the best group of advisors I’ve seen in my lifetime.
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Might have also been the fact that media was telling us Bernie, the Marxist was gonna run away with super Tuesday. Didn’t happen – futures up as I type this.
How you doing on gold?
I think the EU correction probably over. I short at the moment – longer term – less risk.
Yeah thats what I expected yesterday lol
Still buying the dips - more so silver now(fizz)
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Took profit. Tried a short this AM and safety hit for couple pips. Days of giving back profit and not covering quickly over.
News here overnight is that the Bern can easily pull it out. Futures down again this AM. 
A simple pictorial why few traders make money. Now I ain’t the sharpest knife in da drawer but I can look at the first 2 charts and see the EU is runn’in up the hill – why the hell would I be short???
And yet a chart of live trades from FF shows most are short and averages 200 pips underwater. Go figure.
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