On UsdCad it was more likely the news about Opec today
I think it was trade balance RED news or yes that. It still visits where it has to
Double post coming up, sorry about that.
Today’s first trade:
The top picture is the 1 minute and the bottom picture is the 15 minute. What we have seen on the 15 minute is a long period of consolidation capped by the darker blue line that I have drawn there. We can see how the price breaks that line, retraces to it and then continues up giving an obvious long bias to the market.
The two thin blue lines correspond to recent daily closes and I would have preferred to have entered when the price sailed past the first one, but I wasn’t paying attention. The price stalled at the higher thin blue and I entered when the price posted a new high. I was a little anxious about a price retracement, but I thought that after posting a new high it was unlikely to reverse right then. I took half of my profits at around 8 pips and the rest of my profits at the magenta line, which corresponds to a recent monthly close. 18.7 pips of profit over the two trades.
Trade number two wasn’t so good. It was still a win, but my mindset was influenced by not wanting to give back my gains to the market:
Here we can see a wedge formation on the 1 minute (upper) chart forming as part of a flag pattern. The higher timeframes show that we are in a period of consolidation so I was expecting the price to return to the top of the pattern before finding serious resistance. The lower of the two charts is the one hour and the upper purple line is a recent weekly close.
The problem with this trade is that it went all the way to the purple line, which was my TP, but I got out early and didn’t bag many points. After watching that wedge pattern break, I expected the price to take off and continue on its uptrend; however, it didn’t and instead came back down into the wedge pattern, breaking the trendline that I have drawn (it wasn’t really necessary to draw this on reflection and only gave me extra reasons to get out of the trade early that weren’t really there) and spending some time with my trade below water. I closed half my position when it came back to b/e plus spread + commission because I did not want to lose on both positions. The trade went positive again and floundered around looking like it had run out of steam, so I closed the second position for 2.5 pips of profit. If you look at the chart now, you would see that the price travelled up to the purple line before reversing, hence I was correct that the market was running out of steam, but cost myself because of my anxiety and I could have held on to give myself 10 pips. In effect, I feel like I talked myself out of the trade whilst I was sitting there watching it.
On a positive note, over the last 8 trading days, I have made 713usd profit with a maximum drawdown of 159usd (fake money). Largely in thanks to help from Stu. Also just hashing my thoughts out on here also seems to be helpful.
Ya need some skin in the game mate. Even if it is just a cent account. If this style works for you great but i do have reservations about taking trades so far advanced into the swing. The scaling just doesn’t seem right for what you are doing but you will have to see over a longer period but jumping into the latter part of prior swings is real hit and miss game IMO. Friendly criticism. I shorted back to your wedge as the space was below price.
Sure, I want to prove to myself that I can do it on demo before I put real money behind it. I used to have a real money account and after dribbling it away over years I don’t really feel like doing that again.
I agree with your reversal. I think the movement of the price in the red box above shows us that it isn’t going to break the weekly close easily. If I had had the temerity, I would have sold on the strong bear candle there for the reasons that the 1 minute is telling me that it is going down and the market is looking stretched on the higher timeframes and is due a retracement. I have to go to bed, so no more trading for me.
N prob mate I’m not suggesting real skin in the game but cents won’t damage you interested. I’ll drop that same chart here later with some thoughts if you want ?
Please. I would be interested in listening to what you have to say.
… ok ( bloody bot (body has no sense )
1 Hour Chart
1 Minute Chart
5 Minute Chart
So considering the thoughts on the 1 hour chart and those very recent Weekly levels and nothing of note in terms of pullback in about 80 pips, the elastic is stretched and some contraction is normal to keep picking up the orders. So probability and being used to seeing this behaviour my thoughts say it will fill the space below more likely. It’s only ever about the most probable outcome mate, I get it wrong about 20% of the time. So this is why I say your scaling seems wrong for your approach.Taking a long so close to that zone for a gain of 7-10 is highly dangerous. It could have so easily turned round at your entry. I mention this in my thread notes. You often see that same little 1 min range close to a level, it reaches out to the level to suck in buyers/sellers depending which way and then back in to the range at very least. Highly probable that on fresh weekly levels, there is still liquidity for at least a 1 min bounce. If you measure the prior 1 hour swing that you were climbing against it was about 100 pips and you chose to start the ascent at about 4/5ths of that. I hope that explains what I mean by the scale doesn’t seem right for your objective.
If for example your entry was for a crack at 1.17 with your RISK at 1.13 ish I could understand that logic.
Say stop whenever you want. Don’t want to yap for yapping sake, only if it is of value.
Finally landed a 30+ pip trade in what seemed like forever. I’d rather have a nothing day than a losing day, but dear god the E/J has been as flat and indecisive as my ex the previous two weeks. I like waking up to seeing at least one of my sleeping trades take profit. Not waking up and seeing pending orders sitting there untouched. Good to see she’s finally moving again and I can at least try to get close to doubling my account before the end of the year. I’m sick of living off of tuna sandwiches and canned beans. I want to move up to split chicken breasts and mini potatoes already!
Hey Nice 4x. Perhaps you can share a flavour of the way you operate here. I think making limits go to work while ya sleep is every traders wet dream.
Would be interested in trying to catch an EU 1 hour swing at around 1.1343 for higher and around 1.1446 for lower. Anything in between just grab a few. Of course all, some or none of that can happen and it is Friday
This is basically what I run with. I didn’t come up with the method. This was determined by a german geek that coached me through a rough patch on the old eff eff dot com site.
His theory was that price movements aren’t random. That price returns to the same areas over and over again. Now he had an algorithm that basically determined the levels for him. I suck at that crap, so instead I look at the 15m charts, and look for the markets to basically establish a level they love way too much. I draw a horizontal line, and look for it to touch as many candles and wicks as it can. As long as it’s both support and resistance, it will return to that level. Just look at the volatility of the pair. If it’s very volatile, look for 30-40 pip levels. If you’re a lame ass that exclusively trades the eur/usd, 10-12 pip levels
Bit like a mean reversion type plan. I agree with the German geek about not being random although many times I have no clue where it will go there are some things it does over and over which convinces me that isn’t an accident.
This lame ass is happy to grab whatever he can and on occasion do dance with devil pairs like G/N which can do 40/50 pips in a heartbeat.
…it keeps the blood flowing.
I’m one of them! Tak’in couple days off so eyeball occasionally on charts. My lady nodded and winked and I slowly moved to the dance floor. We smiled, I kissed her lightly on the cheek and she gave me some! These two trades each gave me more than a bank would pay me to use my money for a year – one in less than 16 minutes. I love slow danc’in so y’all can have them gals that like them wild, squirrelly dances!
What a totally shitty day!
The only good thing was that I finished in profit… 0.5%
Here’s a glimpse of what my setup is like on the E/J. Most of these levels were already determined over a year ago. I usually determine them on the 15m chart, but the 1h seems to line up the best. I make my sleeping trades based off of the Tokyo session. Set a buy limit roughly 60 pips below the high, and set a sell limit roughly 60 pips above the low, at whatever level is closest to it.
There’s one of my secrets, and the only one I’ll give away for free.