Can we reenter a normal world where the models that set out the range of possible events and assign reasonable probabilities to them can again be relied upon? Referring of course to the models we use to purchase equities.
Or will our political leaders put kindling on fires that risk leading to a conflagration?
Wiith vaccines on the horizon and stimulus in place, there is much to be optimistic about. In the latter scenario, risk aversion could skyrocket as Americans peer warily at one another and worry about what’s next. If that occurs, the trip out of the hole we have dug will take years.
Just as the course of a rumored asteroid is unknown, it is impossible to say whether our political leaders will step up and restore normalcy. As they have all but abandoned the unity story it is unlikely.
Historically, we have been a nation of laws and peaceful transitions, a nation with plenty of risk, but not a lot of uncertainty. The faster we return to that model again, the more certain we can be that the investment that makes our economy hum will be going full throttle rather than being put on hold or slowed as we wait for uncertainty to disappear.
The left cannot help them selves, the pogrom of the left against the right will continue. Best bet, like 2007 begin selling and be out to the market. A recession is near and could be triggered by the smallest of events.