In case anyone is unfamiliar with Larry Sabato, let me just say that he is a political analyst–much in the mold of Charlie Cook, Scott Rasmussen, and Stu Rothenberg.
I receive his newsletter every week.
It is my understanding that, in his personal life, he leans center-left. But he never allows his personal opinions to show through, in his newsletter. He is a serious analyst–not a partisan hack.
Anyway, in his most recent newsletter, he suggests that the GOP is likely to retain the Senate in 2020–despite the fact that almost twice as many Republican seats as Democratic seats are up for re-election–and he goes into the reasons as to why that is the case.
At the very beginning, it lists “KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE” (caps in original).
They are as follows:
"-- Senate retirements are not having a dramatic effect on the partisan odds in any race so far.
"-- Democrats have missed on some Senate recruits, and that may (or may not) matter in the long run.
"-- Alabama and Colorado remain the likeliest states to flip, with the Democratic-held Yellowhammer State the likeliest of all.
"-- Arizona is the purest Toss-up.
“-- Republicans remain favored overall.”
Moreover, he says the following:
“[E]ven if Democrats win Arizona and Colorado but lose Alabama, they would need at least two more victories in GOP-held seats. Which ones? The list actually isn’t that long, or that appealing, for Democrats.”