I do not have a favorite in the race. I will vote for whoever wins. But I have opinions: both Biden and Sanders are too old. I am grateful for both of their years of service, but it is time to pass the baton.
Biden has run a few times and did not do well projecting himself to large groups of people. He was then a good and respected partner to Obama.
There is a skill at running a big campaign that does well in large, diverse, populations. Some of the contenders have already demonstrated this skill: Harris, Klobuchar, and O’Rourke. Some of those who have not demonstrated it may be able to, as Obama did.
Biden’s electoral experience was very good in a state with just under a million people (about 800K people for much of his time in the Senate). He has tried to go national, in large fields, and did not catch on.
Sanders’ successful Senate races were in an even smaller state: 624K people. Others can judge the significance of his 2016 run in a tiny field. Versus the Clinton machine, he did better than O’Malley, but a fair amount less well than Obama.
There is something depressing about the two leading Democrat candidates both being in their late 70s, both white, both men, and both from small non-diverse states–in a party where the energy is young and people of color, and where the cities in the big battleground states will likely tell the tale.
The 2020 delegate selection is tightly compressed and very front end loaded. 42% of the delegates will be awarded in the first 30 days. Any candidate who wins a concentrated pack of delegates on Super Tuesday will be hard to catch.
Both Biden and Sanders have competed in the traditional Super Tuesday states (which are more Southern and more diverse). Biden did poorly in a large field and Sanders did poorly as the anti-Hillary. California votes on Super Tuesday for the first time and will matter. It is extraordinarily difficult to campaign in and its primary is semi-closed, so registered democrats really matter. The polling to date is weighted toward the first 4 states, which together account for 156 pledged delegates (versus the 495 pledged delegates that will be awarded by California). Signaling will be less. California and many of the other Super Tuesday states will be early voting concurrently with the first 4 states.
I would prefer that Biden did not run since it will be humiliating and will tarnish his legacy. His probability of winning the nomination is in the high 20%s and Sanders is in the low 20%s. This is a glass fullness story. Both have higher probabilities than anyone else, but there is about a 50% chance that it is someone else.
